Underground Remittances - From Hawala to Bitcoin


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In places where government sanctions block formal remittance channels, underground money transfer networks often emerge, subverting both central authorities and the traditional financial system.
 
In our first article, we look at a few of these covert remittance networks from Somalia to North Korea, and explore how an innovative virtual currency like Bitcoin might bring them into the mobile realm. We then delve deeper into Bitcoin and weigh the opportunities and risks of this potentially disruptive technology, particularly within emerging markets. 

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In this issue: 

Underground Remittances: From Hawala to Bitcoin
  
In countries where remittances are illegal or strictly regulated, diaspora populations have devised innovative ways to send money home. We look at a few difficult-to-access countries to see how money makes its way in, and if these underground corridors might soon go mobile. 
 
Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer digital currency, has the potential to be a truly disruptive technology in the mobile payments realm, particularly in emerging markets. But will security risks prevent it from garnering mainstream appeal?

What is your view?

Given the inherent security risks, to what extent do you think unregulated digital currency such as Bitcoin can gain mainstream appeal in the coming years?

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Underground Remittances: From Hawala to Bitcoin

In sensitive political contexts from North Korea to Somalia, security concerns have led to restriction of money transfer corridors, making remittances a challenging, and often illegal, endeavor. But legal barriers many times fail to stem the flow of money, as diaspora and refugee populations continue to send funds to friends and family through improvised channels. We survey a few of those hard-to-reach areas to see how money manages to slip in, and if these underground networks might soon go mobile. 
 
North Korea: Smuggling Cash through China
 
The Korean peninsula presents an interesting snapshot of remittance regulations, and the creative systems that have emerged to subvert them. Sanctions from both the UN and the European Union [1], in addition to strict regulations from both North and South Korea, have virtually blocked all formal money transfer channels into the North.[2] While a recently proposed South Korean law may soon open the North-South money transfer channels, sending money to the North remains risky and expensive.[3]
 
However, despite formidable legal barriers, an underground system of cash transfer has emerged to facilitate remittances, and the South Korean government has done little to stop it, as the money is sent for humanitarian, rather than military, purposes.[4] The Database Center for North Korean Human Rights estimates that 49 percent of North Koreans in the South regularly send money to families back home, with an estimated $10 million sent to the North by defectors annually.[5] According to North Korea expert Andrei Lankov, the remittances are made in cash, and sent through the same intricate network of brokers that smuggles people, letters and mobile phones into North Korea through China.[6]
 
While these corridors are surprisingly reliable, they also come with a huge price tag. On average, brokers charge 20 to 30 percent of the total amount remitted, costs that can be prohibitively expensive for a large number of North Korean defectors.[7]
 
Somalia: Flaunting Anti-Terrorism Laws
 
Security concerns have also led to the restriction of remittance channels to and from Somalia, where informal money transfer networks have allegedly been used to fund terrorist activities.[8] While the US Government officially permits remittances (except to individuals prohibited by the Specially Designated Nationals list), banks in Minnesota, home to 32,000 Somali Americans, last year clamped down on wire transfers to the East African country.[9] To justify the move, they cited fears that the transfers would cause them to violate US anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism laws. In a remittance-dependent country where one-third of the GDP comes from abroad,[10] and traditional remittance companies like Western Union and MoneyGram do not operate, the banks’ restrictions cut off many Somalis from an important source of income.
 
While Somali Americans have found other ways to send money back home, primarily through remittance companies in other countries, these options remain relatively limited and expensive. The World Bank remittance portal shows that funds can only be transferred to Somalia via remittance companies in the United Kingdom, with an average fee of 6.18 percent per transaction.[11]
 
Iran: Hawala Circumvents Bank Restrictions
 
In Iran, the flow of remittances has been similarly restricted. Through an array of economic sanctions against Iran, along with the expulsion of many Iranian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), sending money to Iranian financial institutions has become nearly impossible.[12] For example, while US sanctions nominally allow money transfers to Iran for “non-commercial family remittances,” a report from the Asian Law Caucus warns that, in practice, “funds transfers between US and Iran that do not violate the Iran Sanctions are few and far between.”[13]
 
But with $1.1 billion in remittances sent to Iran in 2010, it is evident that restrictions have failed to stop the flow of money, which inevitably finds a way into the country.[14] As in much of North Africa and the Middle East, under-the-radar transfers often occur through the Hawala network – an informal system of money transfer that bypasses central authorities. While the network is unregulated, and thus data is hard to collect, estimates from the World Bank show that large volumes of money are transferred through the network, with no specific limit on the amount that can be sent.[15]
 
From Hawala to Bitcoin
 
While cash-based hand couriers and the informal Hawala networks enable diaspora populations to circumvent restrictive regulations, these systems remain expensive and inaccessible for many would-be remitters – creating pent-up demand for a cheaper, more convenient means to covertly transfer funds. Accordingly, as mobile penetration continues to grow exponentially, even in restrictive economies such as North Korea and Iran, underground value transfer may soon find a new vehicle – the mobile phone.
 
Although most mobile payment platforms would be subject to the same restrictions as traditional remittance companies, newly emergent virtual currencies like Bitcoin have the capacity to fly beneath government regulations, opening alternate channels for subversive money transfer. Bitcoin, as a decentralized, politically-neutral currency that can be transferred via mobile or online networks, could see adoption in contexts where financial services are restricted but mobile penetration is high (see next article for details about Bitcoin).
 
In a recent Forbes article,[16] E-money specialist Jon Matonis argued that Bitcoin could gain traction in the Somali context, where mobile penetration rates are high (33.4%),[17] the telecommunications sector is strong, and a large portion of the population is already familiar with using mobile phones to send and receive money. In Iran, where cellphone penetration is nearly 112%,[18] or North Korea, where mobile ownership is on the rise [19] and remittances are already facilitated via mobile phones,[20] wide adoption of a peer-to-peer digital currency such as Bitcoin might not be so far-fetched.
 
But the use of Bitcoin in these contexts may pose as much of a threat as it does an opportunity. On an international scale, a currency similar to Bitcoin could open channels for money laundering, the funding of terrorist activities or the continued economic support of repressive regimes. Further, as a relatively new and untested platform (surfacing on the Internet only in 2009), Bitcoin could leave remitters vulnerable to fraud or large-scale hacking scandals.
 
Regardless of these threats, the international community may be powerless to stop the emergence of Bitcoin, particularly in contexts such as North Korea, Somalia, or Iran where there is demand for alternative monetary systems. It will, therefore, be important to observe how Bitcoin develops in these “underground” corridors, as it is in such spaces that opportunities for mobile payments abound, even in the context of significant risk.


 
Bitcoin: Disruptive Force or Security Hazard?

Bitcoin is, by design, a subversive platform, circumventing central authorities to transfer funds between individuals and across borders – even, potentially, to highly restricted countries such as North Korea and Somalia. But beyond these underground corridors, can an unregulated and virtually unknown currency garner mainstream appeal?  
 
In the developed world, the answer seems to be no. While there were
8.8 million Bitcoins in circulation as of April 2012,[1] security breaches have reduced both the currency’s market value and consumer trust. Further, the currency lacks resonance among those with access to robust financial systems.
 
Among consumers in emerging markets, however, Bitcoin might have the potential to gain traction – at least that is what Bitcoin advocates are hoping. And with developing countries experiencing exponential growth in mobile penetration, alongside limited access to formal banking services, they may be right. While Bitcoin is still an alien concept for many, even for those who closely watch the payment services industry, the peer-to-peer digital currency (one of the most popular to emerge thus far) has a certain appeal among individuals who have long been excluded from traditional financial systems.
 
In contrast to other mobile payment technologies, even those touted as “disruptive” forces like Square or Isis, Bitcoin’s decentralized network has the potential to truly unsettle the existing financial system, transferring agency from banks and governments into the palms of individuals. In fact, 
the currency can be created on the Internet by anyone, through a free application called a Bitcoin Miner. Once created, Bitcoins can be encrypted and then transferred anywhere in the world, without interference from central authorities or financial institutions.[2]
 
As an entirely digital platform, accessible wherever there is Internet, Bitcoin could become a key player in the mobile payments realm. The open-source
“Bitcoin for Android” application launched last year allows users to store and transfer Bitcoins directly from their smartphone.[3] Rudiger Koch, a consultant for Bitcoin exchange Intersango, has suggested that the Bitcoin network might soon expand to low-cost cellphones as well, through an application that would process transactions using bar code or QR-code technology.[4]
 
A New Currency for Africa?
 
Bitcoin’s mobile accessibility would make it a viable platform in developing contexts, where mobile phones abound, but traditional financial systems are often weak or inaccessible. With an already vibrant mobile money market expected to exceed
$200 billion in 2015, Africa could represent a real opportunity for Bitcoin exchanges.[5]
 
In fact, decentralized digital currencies such as Bitcoin may hold certain advantages over the African’s dominant mobile payment platforms. While services like M-Pesa are often constrained by national or regional borders, Bitcoin can transcend international barriers. Further, according to an
article by ITWeb Africa,[6] the decentralized nature of Bitcoin gives it an inherent advantage over mobile payment systems, which are often tied to specific mobile operators or financial institutions. As an open-source, peer-to-peer network, Bitcoin can be used on any Internet-enabled device, regardless of network or affiliation.
 
In developing regions, where remittances often represent a significant portion of the GDP (for example, 25 percent in Lesotho),
Bitcoin also has the potential to streamline international money transfer by cutting out the middleman.[7] Using Bitcoin, individuals would be able to bypass costly remittance services and receive their money almost instantaneously.
 
Hacking the Unhackable
 
However, as the previous article suggests, Bitcoin is still relatively new, and thus potential security risks must be addressed before the currency can gain mainstream adoption. While the Bitcoin network itself is supposedly “unhackable,” users themselves represent a weak point in the system through which essential data can escape and enter the wrong hands. E-money specialist John Matonis
wrote that while Bitcoin cryptography is secure, “the current weak area for safety is in how individuals choose to store and protect their Bitcoin balance,” a variable that is impossible to fully control.[8]  
 
In fact, the “unhackable” network has seen a surprising number of large-scale hacking scandals, reducing both the market value and consumer trust. Reports of a
$500,000 digital heist last year caused the value of Bitcoin to drop to $5, from a peak of $30 prior to the scandal.[9] In May, Bitcoin exchange site Bitcoinica had to suspend operations after hackers stole an estimated $90,000 from its online wallet.[10]
 
Further, virtual currency without a central regulatory authority could, like cash-based markets, foster criminal activities and tax evasion. These concerns were raised in
an FBI intelligence assessment on Bitcoin, which asserted that Bitcoin provided a “venue for individuals to generate, transfer, launder, and steal illicit funds with some anonymity.”[11] These concerns were validated in June 2011 with the emergence of the “Silk Road” online marketplace – where individuals could sell illegal drugs in exchange for Bitcoins.[12]
 
However, while the unregulated nature of the currency leaves it vulnerable to security threats, it also makes Bitcoin a powerful tool for democratizing access to financial services across the globe. Thus, although it may not be a silver bullet for developing countries, it should not be discounted as a possibly disruptive force in the near future.


 
 
 
       

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